What can we learn about the Hype Cycle 2024?

The Gartner Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies is an annual visualization released by the analyst firm Gartner. Here, new technologies are identified based on their expected impact, adoption, and the often exaggerated expectations that arise around that technology. The model follows five phases: from the innovation trigger, the peak of inflated expectations, the fall through the “Troch of Disillusionment”, to finally the “Plateau of Productivity.”

This curve shows how technologies are initially embraced with great enthusiasm and unrealistic expectations, and then reality often disappoints. Companies are realizing that implementation comes with not only benefits, but also challenges and limitations. So it's critical that companies understand when a technology is ready for adoption and when patience and perseverance are needed.

The rise of Generative AI and Humanoid Robots

This year, the Hype Cycle sees another major focus on artificial intelligence. Two notable new technologies in the Hype Cycle are Artificial General Intelligence and Humanoid Robots. The latter are robots with human traits and fine motor skills, capable of taking over complex physical tasks from people. This starts in factories, but there is already speculation about applications in daily life. According to Goldman Sachs, the humanoid robotics market could reach $40 billion in the coming years, with leaders such as Figure AI, Boston Dynamics, Tesla and Apptronik.

But the most interesting development in the 2024 Hype Cycle is the position of Generative AI. Generative AI has just passed the peak of inflated expectations, which means that the initial euphoria is beginning to subside. The technology was initially seen as a panacea, but the reality is now getting through: successful implementation takes time, technical talent and change within organizations.

While the technology can provide enormous long-term value, there are short-term challenges. Processes need to be redesigned and automated, which costs a lot of brainpower and money. But in the long run, companies can achieve huge economies of scale, fully automating repetitive tasks.

Looking to the future

Generative AI is at the beginning of a new realistic phase. Current models, such as OpenAI, are becoming increasingly powerful, but are at the level of - according to OpenAI CTO Mira Murati - a stubborn teenager. Upcoming models, such as Elon Musk's Grok 3 and OpenAI's GPT-5, are likely to launch this year and are capable of providing better and more focused answers without extensive fine-tuning.

But should we worry about the “Troch of Disenchantment”? Absolutely not. As with previous technologies, it is logical that we first undergo a reality check before mass adoption takes place. The technology still has enormous potential, but companies need to understand that it currently takes time and effort to reinvent processes and effectively integrate the building blocks of this technology.

Tomorrow's Winners

Today, investing in experimenting with generative AI is building the company of the future. After the disappointment, there is always the plateau of productivity, where real productivity gains are achieved. According to McKinsey, this technology could eventually provide a global productivity boost of up to $4.4 trillion per year.

In short, don't let yourself be left out of the field. It's logical that AI isn't a magic box, but the leaders who take the step now and aren't discouraged by the challenges are tomorrow's winners. Are you interested in how you can use this in concrete terms for your company? Contact AI.nl or The Automation Group for customized advice.